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Prediction for CME (2023-07-18T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-18T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26092/-1
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is likely an eruption and M1.4 flare from AR 3376 (N27E35) starting ~2023-07-18T19:25Z as seen in SDO AIA. This event partially overlaps with CME 2023-07-18T20:36Z. Arrival signature: from Tarik Mohammad (LASSOS team) a well-defined shock (increase in magnetic field strength, proton density, and bulk speed). A possible sheath region following the shock (enhancements in all the parameters). The possible ICME ejecta start is ~2023-07-21T22:20Z: rotations in both B_y (positive to negative) and B_z (negative to positive) and a sharp decrease in proton density and decrease in bulk speed and temperature. Possibly flank CME encounter since the components (specially B_x and B_y) remain constant. The end of the ICME ejecta is difficult to determine as we have a trailing high-speed stream. The possible end is around 2023-07-22T06:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T19:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1200
Longitude (deg): 31E
Latitude (deg): 29N
Half-angular width (deg): 34

Notes: Difficult fit, with very few STEREO images. Low confidence.
Space weather advisor: YF

Lead Time: 49.25 hour(s)
Difference: 13.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-07-19T18:10Z

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